Observe, Learn, Act

To share and learn trading ideas on stocks, options, futures, warrants, forex, etc ... Mainly dedicated in analyzing Tech

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

NDX uptrend or counter-trend retracement?

There is really nothing we can draw a line between the two, one thing I find it helpful is looking at time-independent charts.  MACD is one of the most used technical indicators and often traders rely on its crossovers to determine reversals and some wait for the crossing of centre line.  However crossevers tend to produce much false signals and here is why.  MACD line belongs to the class of first order derivative of the price action, its histogram describes the second order.  The first derivative of price with respect of time is the velocity, note that I use the word velocity not speed since we have directions here.  When MACD crosses up above the signal line in the negative region, it is experiencing acceleration to the opposite site.  It is changing its velocity, however it does not necessarily mean it is reversing.  A car with its speed decreasing does not mean it is going in reverse directino.  It is simply slowing down.  Therefore more often than not, when there is sideway action in the market, the MACD tend to be very close to the zero line.

To get more insight from its actually rate of change, we can look at non-time-depedent charts such as Renko charts or even tick charts if you hare the expense in subscribing to those.  Below is an example of a Renko Chart on daily NDX.

Note the quicker MACD did cross up above the zero line so it looks like it might be supporting the short-term bullishness suggestion with other indicators also pointing up.  Also note that we have a higher high.



1 comment:

david kong said...

I had some positions in PSQ and SRS today......

What about yours...?

Any ideas...?