S&P500 (SPX) & Crude Futures

This is the chart for crude futures continous contract since the price peak in the summer ..., who would guess it has dropped nearly 70%?  Notice the MACD/PPO has never go back above water, price had few attempts to get back to up but never reach the red 50EMA.

Next is the S&P500 benchmark index for U.S. Equities, since the end of 2007 beginning of recession.  Are we sure we are going back up?  MACD/PPO is yet to reach zero.  ATR is still high but it is slowing coming down.  It seems to go side way for a little while before moving up.

USDEUR or FXE/ULE

Check out the recent surge of the euro, immediately after MACD crosses the middle line

Russell 2000

USD/EUR Bearish?

It seems like the MACD is ready to breach the zero line to confirm a positive velocity on the price, or will it continue its downtrend?  And what will this imply to US indices?

Today's Trade

Today I entered short on RUT right near the climax inside the "Kiss of Death" target, I was stopped out during the "Fake-Out" move but quickily re-entered short at the nice climax.  Then I covered around 1:40pm and was not quick enough to short again.  My position was small but sizable since I used the TZA 3X ETF instrument.

Bullish Run

Fake-Outs & "Kiss of Death" ...

All of the cases are bearish, and in most cases the 5-min MACD is either sloping negatively or it is below zero.  Often it is after a "Fake-Out", so should we have a wider stop-loss so that the "Fake-Out" does not fake us out?  It is probably not the best way, because it is not really predictable to know how far should the stop-loss be placed in ordered not to be a victim of the "Fake-Out".  What I might do is, let the regular stop-loss trigger if hit.  Then pay attention to see if the next move is back to the original direction and enter back if it is reversing down.

Russell 2000 Intraday Faked-Out

Today I was focusing on the RUT index which seems to be smoother than NDX and better in trending.  I use its 3 X leverage short ETF to trade, symbol TZA.  The 3 orange arrows denote the places I have entered my positions, 1/3 at each location.  Looks like my stop-loss was too tight to get "Faked-out" before the big move.  It was sad, but let's learn from mistakes.